Double-digit percentage gains for XRP (XRP) this month may have reached an endpoint, mirroring trends elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market.
This follows the euphoria of Ripple’s partial victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, resulting in calls for a bullish run to $15 in the coming months.
I believe around $15 in 18 months is reasonable.
If they IPO and time it correctly, could be up to $35 IMO.
Make no mistake… it might not go that high… but $xrp Barring some kind of futile, vindictive SEC appeal, IS is breaking all-time highs in this cycle. (less likely) https://t.co/rrMCuOacrE
– Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) 19 July 2023
Nonetheless, fractal analysis of XRP’s recent candlestick and price action patterns suggest that a sharp market correction is unlikely, especially if history repeats itself.
XRP price fractal dropped by 65%
Notably, some XRP market signals preceded a 65% price drop in Q2 2021. These are now flashing again, namely multi-year descending trendline resistance and an “overbought” relative strength index (RSI), as shown below.
A descending trendline resistance (denoted “upper trendline resistance” in the chart above) has limited XRP’s gains since January 2018. This price range is supported by another horizontal trendline resistance (purple) near the $0.93 level.
Overall, the resistance confluence, combined with an overbought RSI, now raises the risk of a market correction for XRP. In this case, XRP price could drop to the lower trendline support at $0.52 by September, which is almost 40% downside from the current price level.
Related: SEC Response to Ripple’s Decision Has Been Mixed, Chair Gensler Says Still Under Consideration
Interestingly, the downside target appears to be near XRP’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; red wave), increasing the chances of a bounce around this level. Furthermore, Ripple served as a local bottom support during the price decline in Q2 2021.
As of July 20, XRP’s price is up 70% month-to-month, outperforming the broader crypto market, which is up only 5% over the same period.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.